- תשואת נוקיה ב-6 חודשים האחרונים עומדת על 10.22 אחוז, המלצת האנסליסט עליה עדיין קניה.
- כמו אריקסון וסיסקו, נוקיה נמנת גם היא ממדיניות האנטי וואוי שדוגלת ארה"ב.
- לאחר מיזוג החברה, נוקיה נמצאת במקום השני במכירות סלולאר בסין אחרי וואוי.
- הסמארט פון החדש של נוקיה, נוקיה 9 PURE VIEW f בעל המצלמה הייחודית בעל 5 עדשות, מספקת לה רוח גבית חזקה.
Based on sales, Nokia (NOK) plus Alcatel-Lucent is now only second to China’s Huawei in telecom equipment sales. In spite of its merger with Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia still failed to slow down Huawei. As per Dell’Oro Group’s 3Q 2018 telecom equipment report, Huawei had 28% market share. Nokia’s share dipped from 20% (2015) to around 17% (2018). The 30% cheaperproducts of Huawei is why Nokia’s stock has an embarrassing 5-year price return of -15.92%.
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Huawei’s market share gain was at the expense of Nokia and Ericsson (ERIC). It is therefore a very welcome development that the United States and its allies intensifying the anti-Huawei crusade. With the elimination of Huawei as a rival in many countries, Nokia could climb back to 20 to 25% market share in telecom equipment sales.
Nokia Can Win More 5G Infrastructure Contracts Starting this Year
This year is the start of global 5G deployments and Huawei might win few contracts outside of China. It will be Nokia and Ericsson who will share the bounty on US-friendly countries’ 5G deployments. Zion Market Research estimated that the 5G infrastructure market size was only worth $1.3 billion last year. It will grow to $22.5 billion by 2025. The 5G infrastructure business has a CAGR of 50.1% from 2019 to 2025.
Taking a bigger slice of the 5G infrastructure deployment business can help Nokia improve its stagnating annual revenue performance. After its merger with Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia has failed to show any notable improvement in its annual revenue. For the last 3 years, Nokia failed to hit breach $27 billion in annual revenue. This of course largely because Huawei offers 30% cheaper products and generous financing terms.
The U.S. and its allies can dictate telecom companies (operating in their countries) to ban Huawei 5G solution/telecom equipment and phones. A governments-initiated global ban on Huawei ultimately benefits Nokia and Ericsson. Nokia can see stronger sales of its telecom equipment, network routers, Ethernet switches, and smartphones.
Networks Is Nokia’s Heart & Soul
The US-initiated discrimination against Huawei products is a very important tailwind for Nokia. Selling networking equipment and telecom infrastructure products and services accounts for more than 88% of Nokia’s revenue. The chart below illustrates just how important the Networks business segment is to Nokia.
(Source: Nokia Q3 ER)
Going forward, Nokia urgently needs the elimination of Huawei as a global rival so it can grow its Networks segment’s revenue. Huawei getting banned in major developing countries’ 5G deployments can add $2 to $4 billion in new revenue for Nokia.
Huawei is also a stiff rival of Nokia in network routers and Ethernet switches. Western and Asian countries allied with the United States can be good long-term customers of Nokia’s routers and switches. Nokia has a major tailwind if it can replace Huawei as a low-cost alternative to Cisco’s (CSCO) routers & switches. As per Grand View Research, the global networking routers & switches industry will grow to $41 billion by 2022.
The U.S. alone has a sizable routers/switches market size of $11 billion last year. If Nokia is willing to offer cheaper routers and Ethernet switches, it can disrupt Cisco’s decades-old domination of U.S. routers/switches sales.
(Source: Grand View Research)
The Other Tailwind is New Smartphones
Nokia makes money on every HMD Global-made Nokia Android phone. It is therefore worth appreciating that Nokia has another killer flagship phone in the Nokia 9 PureView. It is the world’s first penta-lens camera phone. The Nokia 9 PureView has Carl Zeiss optics and it is using an ASIC processor from Lytro L16 camera maker Light. With Depth of Field lenses and F/1.8 apertures, the Nokia 9 PureView will likely become the best pro-level photography camera phone.
HMD Global made the Nokia 9 PureView as a $699 Android One flagship phone. It is likely that Google will help market this phone to enterprise and home users.
(Source: HMD Global)
My fearless forecast is that Nokia can bundle the Nokia 9 PureView with 5G infrastructure deployment contracts. Telecom companies can then offer the Nokia 9 PureView to their pre-paid and postpaid subscribers. HMD Global has distribution partnership with three leading North American telecom/wireless companies. Nokia should help HMD Global persuade Tier1 smartphone producing companies around the world to carry Nokia smartphones for postpaid/prepaid subscribers.
I rate NOK as a buy because this Finnish company is safe from any future retaliations that China will do over America’s anti-Huawei crusade. Finland’s government and other influential institutions never joined America’s anti-Huawei propaganda. I am sure that Pres. Trump’s anti-Huawei stance is why Nokia got chosen by T-Mobile (TMUS) to build its $3.5 billion 5G wireless network. China’s communist leaders still can’t blame Nokia for Huawei’s current political problems.
From another point of view, I Know First has neutral algorithmic forecasts for NOK. My God-given intelligence is still better than I Know First’s Artificial Intelligence stock-picking algorithm. So trust me, NOK has obvious upside potential this year.
Monthly analysis technical indicators and moving averages also supports by buy rating for Nokia’s stock.