February 7, 2019

The article was written by Motek Moyen Research Seeking Alpha’s #1 Writer on Long Ideas and #2 in Technology – Senior Analyst at I Know First

למאמר המלא: https://iknowfirst.com/tesla-stock-forecast-why-teslas-stock-has-improved-upside-potential


  • טסלה עכשיו רווחית ויש לה תזרים רבעוני חיובי ועכשיו מתחילה סוף סוף להגשים את הפוטנציאל הטמון בא.
  • הרכישה של של חברת מקסוול טכנלוגיות הביאה את טסלה צעד משמעותי נוסף בדרך להיות חברת איחסון אנרגיה ראשית בתחום.
  • למקסוול יש את פטנטים ופתרונות מתקדמים בתחום איחסון האנרגיה.
  • אנו חוזים למניית טסלה פונטציאל חיובי בשנה הקרובה.

Tesla’s (TSLA) stock has more upside potential. TSLA already has a great 5-day return of 5.19% but I am still endorsing it as a buy right now.  This industry leading electric vehicle and clean energy/battery company now touts positive free cash flow. Thanks to the commercial success of its most affordable electric vehicle, the Model 3, Tesla has been profitable for the most recent two quarters. The all-stock purchase of Maxwell Technologies is also a future strong tailwind for Tesla.

TSLA’s current price of $321.35 is still well below its 52-week high of $387.46. If Tesla delivers three more successive profitable quarters, my fearless forecast is that TSLA could reach $400 in a year’s time.

(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Why TSLA Has More Upside Potential

My 12-month PT of $400 is made more realistic considering that Maxwell has the best intellectual property on ultracapacitors. Maxwell’s patents and IP can boost the battery capacity and charging time of Tesla-made electric vehicles. Ultracapacitors or supercapacitors, like batteries, can store a large capacity of electrical energy. It means they can be used alongside Tesla cars’ lithium-ion batteries or Tesla PowerPack.

Ultracapacitors like Maxwell’s DuraBlue pictured below can has 45% higher power density than lithium ion batteries. Ultracapacitors are also much faster to charge and discharge. Letting Tesla car owners charge their EVs faster can boost future sales of Tesla. The more cars that Tesla sells, the better it is for the company’s long-term topline and bottomline growth.

 (Source: Maxwell Technologies)

Best of all, in spite of Tesla’s positive quarterly free cash flow, Maxwell got bought in an all-stock deal worth $218 million. The all-stock purchase and acquire-hire of Maxwell and its employees was not a burden to Tesla’s cash reserves of almost $4 billion.  Consequently, Tesla still has tons of cash to put up more production facilities for its best-selling Model 3 cars.

(Source: Quartz)

The attractiveness of TSLA as a long-term investment lies in its ability to deliver large-scale production of its electric cars. Thankfully, production of the Model 3 is getting more efficient. This EV was being produced at a rate of 5k units per week. This year, Tesla’s management is confident that they can produce 10k units of Model 3 every week. The factory in California can now produce 7k units of Model 3 if operated 24/7. Tesla also plans to start production at its Shanghai China Gigafactory. The China factory could add 3k Model 3 cars per week.

Maxwell Technologies Ultracapacitors Can Be Used In Tesla-Powered Electrify America Charging Stations

The ultracapacitors from Maxwell technologies can be installed in hundreds of EV charging stations that Volkswagen Electrify America is building. Electrify America is buying and installing industrial-grade Tesla PowerPacks (350 kilowatt capacity) to reduce cost of EV charging in the U.S. Tesla’s solar roof shingles and PowerPack can lead to cheaper EV charging.

(Source: Tesla)

Electrify America’s management knows all too well that relying on utilities-supplied electrical power can lead to fluctuating rates. The rollercoaster in prices of oil/natural gas is detrimental to the future of electric vehicles. Only cheap renewable power sources (wind, water, geothermal) can ensure the profitability of electric vehicle charging stations.

Building more and more EV charging stations with affordable rates is necessary for better mass adoption of electric cars. The ideal scenario is for North America (and eventually most countries of the world) to have enough EV stations to rival that of the distribution network of gas stations.

Tesla’s solar roof shingles and PowerPack businesses could prove to be a bonanza if Electrify American can build thousands of EV charging stations. Electric car sales can also grow faster if there’s an EV charging station for every 25 or 35 kilometer radius/distance.


Faster charging time for busy professionals was the next hurdle that Tesla cleared when it bought ultracapacitor specialist Maxwell Technologies. An array of ultracapacitors could serve as a backup source of electrical energy in electric cars and EV charging stations. Ultracapacitors can also accelerate the recharging times of electric vehicles.

It also helps a lot that Volkswagen is helping Tesla build more EV charging stations across America. That German company has more cash to spend to really accelerate the rollout of more EV charging stations. Tesla’s much smaller cash flow means it can only focus on building more production facilities for its EV cars. It will be up to Volkswagen/Electrify America to do the heavy lifting in constructing enough EV charging stations.

My $400 PT for TSLA is also in line with Finbox.io’s bullish DCF valuation. According to Finbox, Tesla’s stock has a fair value price of $461.22.

(Source: Finbox.io)

Lastly, TSLA has a very bullish one-year market trend forecast score from I Know First. Tesla’s stock has a market trend score of 372.74. Any score above 100 is already considered a very bullish or strong buy signal. More importantly, I Know First has a 0.6 predictability score on TSLA. It means I Know First’s AI stock picking algorithm has a good history of correctly predicting the 12-month trend pattern of TSLA.

How to interpret this diagram.

Past I Know First Success with TSLA Stock Forecast

I Know First has been bullish on TSLA shares in the past. On September 20, 2016 the I Know First algorithm issued a bullish 1 year forecast for TSLA with a signal of 233.90 and a predictability of 0.59, the algorithm successfully forecasted the movement of the TSLA share. After a year, TSLA shares rose by 81.21% in line with the I Know First algorithm’s forecast. See chart below.

This bullish forecast for TSLA was sent to I Know First subscribers on September 20, 2016.

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